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From: "Pieter J. Cramwinckel" <>
Subject: [DNA] Mutations in surnames
Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2002 13:13:03 +0200


It is interesting to note what FTDNA states on the just received documentation enclosed with my test results with regard to mutations,
quote:
" the rate of mutational change is estimated to approximately 1 change per 500 generations for these loci; however, that estimate is currently the subject of scholarly debate. We have noticed during the past 18 months that some of these markers seem to vary faster for some individuals and even families. We expect that in the months to come we will be able to provide mutation rates on a per location basis rather than the current general estimate provided by specialists in this area. Plan on revisiting our website for information pertaining to this evolving statistic. Since your test 12 different loci, it is reasonable to expect a change every 40 or so generations; however, these changes happen randomly and therefore can actually happen at *any time* " .
Unquote (* emphasis* added by me).

This now starts to 'confirm' what I 'suspected' (and therefore raised as a topic again in this list with a call for empirical pedigree-data) :many surname co-ordinator already reported in this list or on their sites that sometimes no mutation occurred *at all* for 10 or so generations, and all of a sudden in a side-branch a mutation occurred with subsequent generations carrying this mutated marker further (and sometimes mutating again, ending up in 2 mutations).
I now think that soon it will be discovered in scholarly circles that a 1 step mutation on 12 markers (a so-called 11/12 match) will not necessarily ONLY mean a distant ancestor (it can) but also a recognition that these mutations occur more often than previously thought - even in not very *deep* pedigrees (i.e. less than 10 generations)...

Pieter

m.v., kind regards, fr. Grüsse
Pieter J. Cramwinckel
Cramwinckel genealogy http://www.cramwinckel.info
Kraejonwinkela project (Krawinkel research) http://www.kraejonwinkila.com


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