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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2002-08 > 1030658597
From: John S Walden <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] How Specific is 12 marker test
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 2002 18:03:17 -0400
References: <5.1.0.14.0.20020828144332.0572e120@mail.verizon.net>
In-Reply-To: <003c01c24fa0$837a30a0$4aad5241@randallscomput>
At 04:10 PM 8/29/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>Couldn't brothers have a 10 out of 12 match? Both would have the same odds
>of a one step mutation, but not necessarily the same station.
The "could" but the odds on that is small
The percent of time all of 12 marker leading to the same 12 is .998^12 or .976
to have one change this will happen is about .024
and for that to happen also to the second son is .024 again
or about .0006 in combination
or about 1 in 2000
Not to say it will not happen (and because of the statics it almost MUST
happen)
and if we looked a 10,000 families with two sons each
then we would expect to find this case about 5 times.
John
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