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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-03 > 1047254840


From: "Bonner, Gregg" <>
Subject: RE: [DNA] Probability question
Date: Sun, 9 Mar 2003 19:07:20 -0500


Which, I say yet again, is not the point, and as far as I can tell going
back as far as the original question, never was.

The question is: what is the probability shift in the predefined interval?

Perhaps it would be useful for someone to provide an explicit and exact
answer to the original question, rather than provide analogies and answers
to questions that nobody asked.

If, under the conditions given, the common ancestor has a 50% probability of
being found in the first 7 generations, then what is the probability of
finding the common ancestor in the first 7 generations if you know it can't
be in the first 4? Is it 49.9%? 49.0%? 1.8%?

Gregg

> However, it seems intuitive that a negative result on the first time would
shift the median time to find an ancestor further back.


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