Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-11 > 1069284735

Subject: Re: [DNA] Mutation rate and distant ancestors
Date: Wed, 19 Nov 2003 18:32:22 -0500 (EST)
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Nick wrote:
> I assume Relative genetics is still using the mutation rate for
> one marker of 0.004

I thought I heard they had backed off to 0.003.

> ask is that with all the uncertainty in the mutation rate of markers
> 385a,b,439,458,459a&b 449 and the 4 markers 464a,b,c&d it seems as if
> 0.004 might eventually turn out to be about right when one is using a
> mixture of fast and slow mutators?

The result I got in May, fram a mixture of fast and slow, was 0.0023.

> I have done the estimates of MRCA, squaring the differences etc
> but If we use the 0.002 mutation rate and assume 62 transmission events
> and Ann's calculator (assuming a relationship occurred at the beginning of
> surname adoption) the chance of this guy being related to me in the male
> line is about 4.2% (adding the probability of 9,10,11 etc mutations)

You have to square the differences here as well, so it wouldn't be
9,10,11, etc. If the "9" consists of 2+2+2+1+1+1, then you need to
calculate the probabilities of 15,16,17, etc. That makes a big

John Chandler

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