Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-11 > 1069470324

Subject: [DNA] Re: STATISTICAL DISCUSSION at DNA-D Digest V03 #709
Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2003 22:05:26 EST

Referring to the professional-level discussion involving > Bayes' theorem for
> conditional probability:
> Pr(2M | 2k, t) = Pr(2k | 2M, t) * Pr(2M | t) / Prob(2k | t)
The discussion brought to mind a question I have often entertained while
reading DNA-D Digest: I really wonder how many of those who engage in the
colloquium have any feel at all for the laws governing statistical inference. I am one
of those who are really observing from the outside. It seems much too complex
a subject for me to wrap my brain around. I have a book in my library,
titled: "How to Lie with Statistics" and in that volume is this aphorism: "There are
three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

It is not my intent to deride the cognoscenti, far from it. I have a much
respected nephew who is a doctor of genetics. My aim: a little humor and an
expression of fellow-feeling for those who, like me, stay confused on this subject.

Herb Melendy, IBSSG

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