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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-12 > 1165712521


From: "Steven Bird" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] age estimations based upon averagesquareddifferencecalculations
Date: Sat, 09 Dec 2006 20:02:01 -0500
In-Reply-To: <004a01c71bee$61afdc30$0701a8c0@familyone>


Yes, that is possible, especially since we match 31/32. Unusual, I suppose
for 11 generations.

Steve



>From: "Mokurai" <>
>Reply-To:
>To: <>
>Subject: [DNA] age estimations based upon average
>squareddifferencecalculations
>Date: Sun, 10 Dec 2006 11:01:45 +1100
>
>Hi Steven,
>
>I haven't got there yet but I was wondering if perhaps the mutations have
>occurred since to throw your workings off? For instance your paper trail
>might be right but as each branch from that person developed there would
>have been mutations occur. i.e. There were five sons of Bartholomew de la
>POHER (POWER) and four of them went to Ireland with Henry II in 1177. As
>time has gone by we have divided into different branches with different
>mutations. We know that we are from the four brothers as we have a strange
>393 marker of 15. Up to the 37 marker I note the mutations have occurred in
>385b, 439, 570, CDYa and CDYb. The first one has 15 and 14s (there are 18
>of
>us) the 439 has 12 and 11, 570 has 18, 19, 20, CDYa has 32, 33, 34, and
>CDYb
>has 35, 36, 37. There are a couple of others who have differnt
>mutations....like 389ii and 576....and one that has the 464 set as 12, 12,
>14, 15 instead of the normal (for us) set of 12, 14, 15, 17. Oh...one had
>an
>18 on that last one. So the actual calculations cna not be wholely exact
>with these mutations occurring....except maybe if all your participants
>came
>from the same source and the same fahter all the way through.
>
>My thoughts anyhow Steven.....Now I'll go and see where it puts me with the
>four brothers. Pity my third cousins do not want to do the Y-DNA eh. That
>would give me an idea how quick mutations occur eh.
>
>Hooray,
>
>
>Warren.
>ps My exact 25 marker worked out that we were supposed to have a TMRCA at
>1286 but then realised he had forgotten to exclude the nine generations
>that
>we know we shared no common direct male ancestor. He then worked out using
>FTDNA calculator that it was 1136. We were said to have come with William
>the Conqueror in 1066 to England. Not too sure what he means by that yet.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Steven Bird" <>
>To: <>
>Sent: Sunday, December 10, 2006 1:22 AM
>Subject: Re: [DNA] age estimations based upon average squared
>differencecalculations
>
>
>Hello Wim,
>
>I have been playing around for a while with your very interesting TMRCA
>calculator and have noted that my conventionally proved line of BIRD
>descendants (9th cousins) tends to undercalculate somewhat. I only have 32
>markers to work with, however. (I did correct the spreadsheet formula to
>reflect 32 markers instead of 37). It shows "MRCA living ca. 1853." In
>reality, the MRCA was born about 1595, so the TMRCA ought to reflect a date
>somewhat closer to 1600. (The lines are both fully proved, so I have very
>high confidence about the TMRCA.)
>
>Regarding E3b, there are several distinct geographic regions involved:
>E3b1
>(alpha) is from the Balkans, E3b2 is associated with Berber populations and
>E3b3 is associated with north and east Africa.
>
>The general estimate for E3b emerging as a clade appears to be about 23kya,
>according to Cruciani, give or take a few millenia. :-) Your estimate of
>18 Kya appears to be on the short side, as do your TMRCA calc estimates
>from
>the other program. I'm not sure why; maybe other list members might have
>some ideas on this one.
>
>HTH,
>
>Steve Bird
>E3b devotee
>
>
>
>
> >The tool calculates variances (ASD) for each marker in the 37 marker
>panel.
> >On the settings page you can change generation age (default 25 years) and
> >mutation rates.
> >
> >For each of the 37 markers there is a default estimated mutation rate,
> >which
> >you can change. The average of the 37 default mutation rates = 0.0012
> >
> >
> >
> >I did a few calculations with some haplogroup Projects and these were the
> >results (years bp):
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >E3b
> >
> >18039
> >
>
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>
>
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