Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-12 > 1165740663

From: "wim callewaert" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] age estimations (TMRCA and ASD)
Date: Sun, 10 Dec 2006 09:51:03 +0100
In-Reply-To: <BAY105-F167FEA83460C6E6B0D4822CCD10@phx.gbl>


Since you have a proven line to a MRCA that was born in 1595 (11 generations
ago), you could put an exact generation age in the tool (about 35 years).
The default generation age in the tool is 30 years but you can easily change
it. The result would still be an underestimation (but I'm not surprised with
a genetic distance of only 1).
The mutation rates used in the TMRCA-calculator are simply based upon the
range of STR-outcomes in each marker which I found on the net and in
databases. The bigger the range, the higher the mutation rate (the average
rate however I set on 0.0020, but can also be changed).
The mutation rates in each marker could be different in different
haplogroups, so I made an overall 37 markers page and also some haplogroup
pages in the tool. Did you try the E3b-page?


-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
[mailto:] Namens Steven Bird
Verzonden: zondag 10 december 2006 2:02
Onderwerp: Re: [DNA] age estimations based upon

Yes, that is possible, especially since we match 31/32. Unusual, I suppose
for 11 generations.


>From: "Mokurai" <>
>To: <>
>Subject: [DNA] age estimations based upon average
>Date: Sun, 10 Dec 2006 11:01:45 +1100
>Hi Steven,
>I haven't got there yet but I was wondering if perhaps the mutations have
>occurred since to throw your workings off? For instance your paper trail
>might be right but as each branch from that person developed there would
>have been mutations occur. i.e. There were five sons of Bartholomew de la
>POHER (POWER) and four of them went to Ireland with Henry II in 1177. As
>time has gone by we have divided into different branches with different
>mutations. We know that we are from the four brothers as we have a strange
>393 marker of 15. Up to the 37 marker I note the mutations have occurred in
>385b, 439, 570, CDYa and CDYb. The first one has 15 and 14s (there are 18
>us) the 439 has 12 and 11, 570 has 18, 19, 20, CDYa has 32, 33, 34, and
>has 35, 36, 37. There are a couple of others who have differnt
> 389ii and 576....and one that has the 464 set as 12, 12,
>14, 15 instead of the normal (for us) set of 12, 14, 15, 17. had
>18 on that last one. So the actual calculations cna not be wholely exact
>with these mutations occurring....except maybe if all your participants
>from the same source and the same fahter all the way through.
>My thoughts anyhow Steven.....Now I'll go and see where it puts me with the
>four brothers. Pity my third cousins do not want to do the Y-DNA eh. That
>would give me an idea how quick mutations occur eh.
>ps My exact 25 marker worked out that we were supposed to have a TMRCA at
>1286 but then realised he had forgotten to exclude the nine generations
>we know we shared no common direct male ancestor. He then worked out using
>FTDNA calculator that it was 1136. We were said to have come with William
>the Conqueror in 1066 to England. Not too sure what he means by that yet.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Steven Bird" <>
>To: <>
>Sent: Sunday, December 10, 2006 1:22 AM
>Subject: Re: [DNA] age estimations based upon average squared
>Hello Wim,
>I have been playing around for a while with your very interesting TMRCA
>calculator and have noted that my conventionally proved line of BIRD
>descendants (9th cousins) tends to undercalculate somewhat. I only have 32
>markers to work with, however. (I did correct the spreadsheet formula to
>reflect 32 markers instead of 37). It shows "MRCA living ca. 1853." In
>reality, the MRCA was born about 1595, so the TMRCA ought to reflect a date
>somewhat closer to 1600. (The lines are both fully proved, so I have very
>high confidence about the TMRCA.)
>Regarding E3b, there are several distinct geographic regions involved:
>(alpha) is from the Balkans, E3b2 is associated with Berber populations and
>E3b3 is associated with north and east Africa.
>The general estimate for E3b emerging as a clade appears to be about 23kya,
>according to Cruciani, give or take a few millenia. :-) Your estimate of
>18 Kya appears to be on the short side, as do your TMRCA calc estimates
>the other program. I'm not sure why; maybe other list members might have
>some ideas on this one.
>Steve Bird
>E3b devotee
> >The tool calculates variances (ASD) for each marker in the 37 marker
> >On the settings page you can change generation age (default 25 years) and
> >mutation rates.
> >
> >For each of the 37 markers there is a default estimated mutation rate,
> >which
> >you can change. The average of the 37 default mutation rates = 0.0012
> >
> >
> >
> >I did a few calculations with some haplogroup Projects and these were the
> >results (years bp):
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >E3b
> >
> >18039
> >
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