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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-04 > 1175962042


From: Bonnie Schrack <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] OmniPop usefulness. WAS: Autosomal Markers Panel 1
Date: Sat, 07 Apr 2007 12:07:22 -0400


Al wrote:

> Sue,
> John's reply demonstrates that we _cannot_ use OmniPop in general
> because the results as shown will only make sense, or approximate sense,
> only when the population sizes are approximately equal. Of course,
> however, we already know that population sizes vary greatly! So using
> the probabilities given by OmniPop, alone, without estimates of
> population size will lead to, in almost all but special circumstances,
> the _wrong_ result!
>
> <snipped>
>
> . . . the bottom line is, at this time, don't use OmniPop to estimate
> what population groups you might derive from.


Hear, hear, Al! :-) All this is just what I have been saying for
some time now, based on what I've been able to pull together from those
who are most advanced in their knowledge. Despite my own poor knowledge
of statistics, I'm more and more confident that what you've stated is
the most accurate summary of the situation in regard to Omnipop. Thanks
for passing on the results of your studies.

Bonnie




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