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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-12 > 1260118651


From: Michael Walsh <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent
Date: Sun, 6 Dec 2009 10:57:31 -0600


-----> My response:

Alan, I agree with your observations. It is striking to me how
similar much of L21's and U152's (S28) geography is. I guess that
shouldn't be a big surprise, though. We have a number of ages
estimates for L21 and U152 (S28) and their common ancestor, P312
(S116). They each sprang up within hundreds of years of each other,
not thousands. This is really the P312 (S116) family that includes a
large paragroup now known as P312* (S116*). They should be considered
in context of each other.

In reference to the R-L21* confirmed haplotypes database, Dr. Anatole
Klyosov has done a series of calculations with the data. He gave me
permission to quote him. He wrote :

"They (L21+) are ancestral ("base") haplotypes, hence, they are the
most frequent in the series. This is already enough to calculate a
time span to a common ancestor, even without considering mutations. As
you see, one does not need even to count mutations. The formula is
[ln(770/49)]/0.022 = 125 generations to a common ancestor, and after a
correction for back mutations it gives 143 generations (25 years per
generation, this was a condition in the calibration; 0.022 is the
mutation rate constant per 12-marker haplotype), or 143x25 = 3575
years to a common ancestor. At 95% confidence interval it is
3575+/-620 years bp.

If we consider 25-marker haplotypes, there are only two base haplotypes left

13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 16 -- 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 29 15 15 17 17

By the way, it exactly as in R-U152. It shows that they have formed
practically at the same time. R-U106 are different by only two
mutations in the 25-marker format, that is only 600 years from THEIR
common ancestor."

Regards,
Mike

-----> Alan R <> wrote:

I have to say I think what is striking is that continenetal L21 and
U152?are increasingly looking?SIMILAR in a large overlapping central
area.? I think this similarily is growing month by month.? The
differences between them seems to lie more at the extremities.? This
seems to be just a result of the continental epicentres being slighly
different with S28 larger nearer the Alps and L21?better
represented?in the Rhineland, northern France and Luxembourg.?
However, these cores almost touch so the overlap between the clades is
huge in the central area.? The slightly different epicentres?seems to
have led to L21 accessing the sea to the north (isles, Norway) and S28
accessing Italy to the south.? When this happened (perhaps at
different?eras) is not clear.?

Alan


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