Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-12 > 1260334491

From: "Alister John Marsh" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 2009 17:54:51 +1300
References: <><F07163E8BCBC4F4088A74A533542DD98@anatoldesktop>
In-Reply-To: <F07163E8BCBC4F4088A74A533542DD98@anatoldesktop>


I don't expect to convince you of anything. All I am saying is that I am
less confident of your conclusions than you are. I'll agree I have not read
as much on the subject as you, and that gives you a degree of credibility
which I don't have. As I said, you may be right. I don't know, but if I
don't know I will not get off the fence.

We do however seem to be using some of the same evidence to infer different

You said
Again, you should read the literature. There are good examples already of
what you are "keep saying". Let me give you just a few. I have published in
June of 2008 that TMRCA of German R1a1 haplotypes is 4700 years (with a
certain margin of error). A few months later Haak at all published on
excavated R1a1 in Germany with dating of 4600 ybp.

I was not aware that the excavated R1a1 was confirmed by SNP, but it may
have been. Perhaps he was even many subclade levels below R1a1, but not
tested sufficiently to determine. I understood he was only tested on a
handful of STRs. But if hypothetically (ignoring for the moment confidence
intervals) the R1a1 first settler in Germany was 4,700 years ago, then the
dated example at 4,600 ybp, may have been born about 4,630 ybp or earlier.
That would pretty much make him the grandson of the R1b1 first settler in
Germany if he had arrived 4,700 years ago.

A lucky find for the archaeologist if they stumbled on the grandson of the
first R1a1 settler if that is what they did. Given that many millions of
R1a1 persons have died in Germany since the subclade arrived there, the
statistical chances of finding someone so early in the tree would seem
remote, or a very lucky find.

What I inferred from this piece of evidence is that if the R1a1 in this case
was dated at 4,600 ybp, that it was statistically unlikely that he was as
closely related to the R1a1 first settler in Germany as grandson, and that
the first R1a1 settler in Germany was likely "much" before 4,600 ybp. My
inference is that while your age estimates appear as though they could be
within the right ball park, considering confidence intervals, it is more
likely that the first R1a1 settler in Germany was much earlier than your
prediction of "most probable", and the lower range of your confidence
interval has already been disposed of as impossible.

I think this evidence is not proof that you are right... or wrong... but
keeps open the possibility that R1a1 was much earlier in Germany than
inferred by your calculations.

I am still on the fence. But credit to you for reading more than I have on
the subject, and others will no doubt regard your views more highly than


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