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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-12 > 1260781117


From: "Tim Janzen" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:58:37 -0800
In-Reply-To: <B34598B91BE6442389B6C302C051D4F9@anatoldesktop>


Dear Anatole,
These TMRCA calculations are simply estimates. Feel free to round
them to the nearest thousandth year if you so desire. I don't know if the
mutation rates have a margin of error of only 10% or not. I am using John
Chandler's mutation rates. Perhaps John or someone else can comment on
that. I think that it is possible that John's calculated mutation rates for
the slowest mutating markers are too low. I don't have any hard data on
this, however, since I have never attempted to duplicate his work and create
my own mutation rate estimates. Ken Nordtvedt had some comments on this
situation this summer. See
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2009-07/12480261
20 and the associated thread.
Sincerely,
Tim

-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Anatole Klyosov
Sent: Sunday, December 13, 2009 5:09 PM
To:
Cc: Anatole Klyosov
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent


Dear Tim,

First, the 95% confidence interval could not possibly be less that 20%
(compared
with your 35,245+/-3,070 years) in that situation, unless you have used some
unrealistically "fine" assumptions.
77,576+/-22,000 seems to be O.K. for 95% confidence interval
for your system only if the error margin for the mutation rate constant
(0.00040) is
only 10%.
Last, but not least, you are not serious with 77,576 (!) years, aren't you?
I mean, those five digits... with such a precision...


Regards,

Anatole Klyosov



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