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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-12 > 1260795680


From: "Alister John Marsh" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:01:20 +1300
References: <200912140842.nBE8gmwK001222@mail.rootsweb.com>
In-Reply-To: <200912140842.nBE8gmwK001222@mail.rootsweb.com>


Tim,

Thanks for your continuing analysis. I find your presentations of
comparisons between slow and fast markers a very useful way of estimating if
the formulas are getting us into the right ball park, and whether
information such as mutation rates we are relying on are tolerably accurate.

You said in a recent post...
>>>>>>>
If we look at the node for R-U106 and R-P312 using 67-marker
haplotypes these are the TMRCA estimates for the various options of markers
followed by the 95% confidence intervals using your methodology:

10 slow markers: 7594 +/-19078
10 slow medium markers: 7514 +/-12068
10 medium markers: 3602 +/-5231
10 medium fast markers: 3417 +/-4073
10 fast markers: 3118 +/-3271
50 markers: 3740 +/-2374
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 4073 +/-5610
24 slow markers: 6256 +/-7540
<<<<<<<

If you look at the 10 slow markers above, the confidence intervals for the
R-U106 and the R-P312 node are for the 95% confidence interval some time
between 26,672 years ago, and 11,484 years into the future. If the 100%
confidence interval is wider than this, the node given those confidence
intervals might be considerably more than 11,484 years into the future.

I am R-P312. Some days I am not quite sure if life is an illusion or not,
but the fact that I believe I am here today writing this posting would seem
to make the node 12,000 years into the future somewhat unlikely. But I
suspect you were aware of this.

In every case above, the short end confidence interval is able to be proved
to be impossible. Perhaps this shows us that the maths does not yet reflect
reality, at least with respect to confidence intervals.

John.





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