Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2009-12 > 1260806049

From: Vincent Vizachero <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] R-U152 and R-L21 on the European Continent
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 2009 10:54:09 -0500
References: <><6C902AF4FF72438E97B0BC46DF3B709C@john>
In-Reply-To: <6C902AF4FF72438E97B0BC46DF3B709C@john>

Of course the TMRCA for an existing clade can not be in future.

The wide confidence intervals tell us one thing with surety: we need
lots more STRs with the right characteristics if we want more precise
TMRCA estimates.

As it stands, you can get more precision if you don't mind being less
accurate. And vice versa. But I think most of us would agree that
precision without accuracy is 100% useless, while accuracy without
precision is less than 100% useless.


On Dec 14, 2009, at 8:01 AM, Alister John Marsh wrote:

> In every case above, the short end confidence interval is able to be
> proved
> to be impossible. Perhaps this shows us that the maths does not yet
> reflect
> reality, at least with respect to confidence intervals.

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