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From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : variance of S116*
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 23:12:10 +0000 (GMT)


If Tim's variance based MRCA calculations for S116*, U152 and to a lesser degree L21 do reflect the date and sequence of arrival of the various clades in various areas (and perhaps that is a big if but lets go with it for the purpose of starting the discussion) rather than some demographic phenomenon then his dates have several important implications for R1b1b2.  They would imply an east-west route from eastern Europe through the main body of central Europe as far as France and the isles.  In contrast, the dates would imply the south and also the extreme north of Europe received their S116 clades in a much later period and an entirely different phase.  It was always extremely hard  to find an archaeological fit for a model were S116 clades spread east-west along both the Med. and the central European routes at the same time.  There has always been a suspicion that either the southern or the central/northern S116 areas must been secondary
and that Europe's current S116 clade spread was the result of a two (or multi) phase spread.  Certainly Tim's calculations would suggest that this was the case with S116 potentially being twice as old in the east or Europe than the south, with west-central Europe (France, Germany etc) not as old as eastern Europe but a lot older than southern Europe.  As the areas of southern Europe are adjacent to the main west-central block (called western by Tim) then it is hard not to conclude that these dates could show that the southern European (basically Italian and Iberian) S116 clades are a late overspill from the west-central European block (invoking connection with the Iron Age Celtic invasions).  It is hard to tally the idea of a late arrival with the high presence of S116 clades in north Italy and Iberia but if variance dates really do provide good indications of the date of arrival of a given clade in an area then that conclusion
would be unavoidable.  The question is do they? The fact that both U152 and S116* both follow this pattern (L21's near absence in the south rules out its use) of a late arrival in the south (especially Italy) and an origin in the east does seem to lend the method credence.  Is there any demographic effect that would cause this pattern to be repeated across two clades?   Why is this so radically different from Anatole's conclusions of a Med. route?

Alan


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