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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-02 > 1267344820


From: "Tim Janzen" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] : low variance MRCA dates for P310 clades in ItalyandSEEurope
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2010 00:13:40 -0800
In-Reply-To: <681534.35665.qm@web86601.mail.ird.yahoo.com>


Dear Alan,
I regrouped the data as you suggested. I regrouped the R-U152 data
that I had previously done TMRCA estimates on as reported in
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2010-02/12663724
30. I did not include the data from France. Below is a TMRCA estimate for
the 12 67-marker R-U152 haplotypes from Spain (3) and Italy (9):

10 slow markers: 0
10 slow medium markers:8104
10 medium markers: 3548
10 medium fast markers:2207
10 fast markers: 2136
50 markers:2563
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3015
24 slow markers: 5853

Below is a TMRCA estimate for the 28 37-marker R-U152 haplotypes from Spain
(8), Portugal (1), Greece (1), and Italy (18):
25 markers: 2814
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3077

Below is a TMRCA estimate for the 60 67-marker R-U152 haplotypes from SE
Europe (12), NE Europe (9), Switzerland (14) and Germany (25):

10 slow markers: 20334
10 slow medium markers: 11203
10 medium markers: 3917
10 medium fast markers: 3578
10 fast markers: 2702
50 markers: 3675
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3802
24 slow markers: 9499

Below is a TMRCA estimate for the 95 37-marker R-U152 haplotypes from SE
Europe (21), NE Europe (11), Switzerland (22) and Germany (41):
25 markers: 3317
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 3526

In an attempt to get around the effects that sample size can have on
variance, I decided to take the 60 67-marker R-U152 haplotypes and break
them up into 5 different groups of 12 haplotypes each. I then ran TMRCA
estimates for 50 markers. The results were 3944, 3544, 2779, 3017, and
3544 years. The average of these estimates was 3366 years. Note that this
is over 800 years older than the 50 marker TMRCA estimate for the 12
haplotypes from Spain and Italy. The conclusion from this analysis is that
it is improbable that R-U152 originated in Italy or Spain.

I regrouped the R-S116*/P312* data that I had previously done TMRCA
estimates on as reported in
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2010-02/12662210
80. Below is a TMRCA estimate for the 47 67-marker R-S116*/P312* haplotypes
from Scandinavia (13) Eastern Europe (11) and Western Europe (23):

10 slow markers: 4545
10 slow medium markers: 4609
10 medium markers: 5510
10 medium fast markers: 3186
10 fast markers: 2922
50 markers: 3488
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 4818
24 slow markers: 5316

Below is a TMRCA estimate for the 67 37-marker R-S116*/P312* haplotypes from
Scandinavia (15) Eastern Europe (14) and Western Europe (38):
25 markers: 3379
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 4689

If we exclude the 13 67-marker R-S116*/P312* haplotypes from Scandinavia
(because R-S116*/P312* likely didn't originate there since we know this
region has a relatively low variance) and do a TMRCA estimate for the
haplotypes from just Eastern Europe (11) and Western Europe (23) these we
get these results:

10 slow markers: 2295
10 slow medium markers: 4118
10 medium markers: 5898
10 medium fast markers: 3194
10 fast markers: 2877
50 markers: 3455
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 5450
24 slow markers: 4793

If we exclude the 15 37-marker R-S116*/P312* haplotypes from Scandinavia and
do a TMRCA estimate for the 52 haplotypes from just Eastern Europe (14) and
Western Europe (38) these we get these results:
25 markers: 3447
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 5042

Below are TMRCA estimates for the 37-marker and 67-marker R-S116*/P312*
haplotypes from Southern Europe:

16 67-marker samples from Southern Europe:
50 markers: 2574
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2980
24 slow markers: 4000

26 37-marker samples from Southern Europe:
25 markers: 3717
10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation rates: 2749

In an attempt to get around the effects that sample size can have on
variance, I decided to take the 34 67-marker R-S116*/P312* haplotypes from
Eastern Europe (11) and Western Europe (23) and break them up into 2
different groups of 17 haplotypes each. I then ran TMRCA estimates for 50
markers. The results were 3519 and 3254. The average of these estimates
was 3387. Note that this is over 800 years older than the 50 marker TMRCA
for the 16 haplotypes from Southern Europe. However, the TMRCA estimate for
26 37-marker samples from Southern Europe is 280 years older than the TMRCA
estimate for 52 haplotypes from Eastern Europe (14) and Western Europe (38)
and 237 years older than for Eastern Europe, which is 3380 as I had
previously posted. If we look at the 10 YHRD markers using YHRD mutation
rates for Eastern Europe versus Southern Europe we find that the TMRCA for
Eastern Europe is 4995 and the TMRCA for Southern Europe is 2749 as
previously posted.
Some caution is warranted in regards to the interpretation of this
information due to relatively small sample sizes for Southern Europe and
Eastern Europe, but I am still inclined to believe that it is improbable
that R-S116/P312 originated in Italy or Spain and that an area of origin in
Eastern Europe or elsewhere in SW Asia is more likely.

Sincerely,
Tim

-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Alan R
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 3:38 AM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] : low variance MRCA dates for P310 clades in Italy
andSEEurope

Could the MRCA calculations for S116* and U152 calculations be regrouped
into two simple geographical groupings and re-run.

1. Counties with substantial Mediterranean or Mediterranean-linked coast (I
suppose Turkey, Greece, the Adriatic Balkans countries, Italy, Spain and
Portugal)

2. Countries without a substantial Mediterranean or Mediterranean linked
coastal area (all the rest)

I think the justification of this approach is:

1. A simple division is the best way of getting a decent sample for each
category
2. By and large east-west movements were divided into those two groups due
to the geography of Europe.

Alan 



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