GENEALOGY-DNA-L ArchivesArchiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-11 > 1290211687
From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Odds Are, It's Wrong - 5% of the time
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 17:08:07 -0700
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gareth Henson" <>
> Uh-oh - classic gambling fallacies.
> If you've lost twice already then the odds of losing three times in a row
> are just the odds of losing the third time.
Sure, if you KNOW the device is behaving the way you assumed. The
interresting question is when does a string of unexpected results convince
someone his model of the underlying process is wrong versus accepting it as
a rare, outlier outcome of the initially assumed model.
The real fallacy of that article is viewing even ideal science as a logical
(as in mathematical logic) process. Science is inductive, and there are no
rules of induction.