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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-11 > 1290211687


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Odds Are, It's Wrong - 5% of the time
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 17:08:07 -0700
References: <F9C440A2-FC59-4A9E-AAAC-85DEE9D2FAB0@GMAIL.COM>,<COL115-W50D879F102DC3996D9D454A03A0@phx.gbl><COL118-W33D30F8531A4233CE0ED4EA03A0@phx.gbl>


----- Original Message -----
From: "Gareth Henson" <>

> Uh-oh - classic gambling fallacies.
>
> If you've lost twice already then the odds of losing three times in a row
> are just the odds of losing the third time.

Sure, if you KNOW the device is behaving the way you assumed. The
interresting question is when does a string of unexpected results convince
someone his model of the underlying process is wrong versus accepting it as
a rare, outlier outcome of the initially assumed model.

The real fallacy of that article is viewing even ideal science as a logical
(as in mathematical logic) process. Science is inductive, and there are no
rules of induction.




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