GENEALOGY-DNA-L ArchivesArchiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2010-11 > 1290229202
From: Steven Bird <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Odds Are, It's Wrong - 5% of the time
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 23:00:02 -0600
References: <F9C440A2-FC59-4A9E-AAAC-85DEE9D2FAB0@GMAIL.COM>,, , <COL115-W50D879F102DC3996D9D454A03A0@phx.gbl>, ,<COL118-W33D30F8531A4233CE0ED4EA03A0@phx.gbl>, ,<COL115-W265440F6CAC26EACE7E766A03B0@phx.gbl>,<COL115-W23D43856114A4E81F80053A03B0@phx.gbl>,<4CE7417F.firstname.lastname@example.org>
Read what I wrote, Al. Better yet, look here:
> Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 19:33:19 -0800
> Subject: Re: [DNA] Odds Are, It's Wrong - 5% of the time
> They are independent events, the odds are the same each time.
> Losing three times in a row has no bearing on what will happen on the
> next trial ...
> > On 11/19/2010 6:00 PM, Steven Bird wrote:
> > The cumulative odds of losing three times in a row, given a 19 out of 20 chance to win on each play, are exactly what I stated. .05*.05*.05=.000125 or .00205% The odds of each chance remain 19 out of 20, but cumulative odds of winning ONE time increase. If I flip a fair coin, the chance of heads is 50/50. However, the chance of NO heads in ten tosses diminishes to 0.5^10, or .000977.
> > As I indicated before, if you are unhappy with a 95% chance of being right, then change the p value to 99.7% or 99.9999%. It is strictly up to the statistician. There is nothing sacred about p=0.05
> > You might be right about the double or nothing bet however. ;-)
> >> From:
> >> To:
> >> Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 23:56:12 +0000
> >> Subject: Re: [DNA] Odds Are, It's Wrong - 5% of the time
> >> Uh-oh - classic gambling fallacies.
> >> If you've lost twice already then the odds of losing three times in a row are just the odds of losing the third time. It doesn't get better the more you lose.
> >> And a double or nothing strategy works in favour of the party who has the last word on whether betting continues or not i.e. the bookmakers& casinos.
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