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From: "Anatole Klyosov" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] NW European R1b from Iberia?
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 21:31:46 -0500
References: <mailman.1808.1291858902.2081.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com>


> From: Robert Tar?n <>
> Below are the resulting ages (generations) obtained for the following
> European countries. The "exclusions" in the 67 marker haplotypes are
> DYS385,
> DYS395, DYS413, DYS425, DYS459, DYS464, YCA II and CDY, as explained in
> Tim's program.
>
> France n=20
> 130.597 (exclusions)
> 91.89701 (all markers)
>
> England n=54
> 130.5026 (exclusions)
> 98.46821 (all markers)

(...)

> Spain n=15
> 95.91887 (exclusions)
> 81.99336 (all markers)

> The above findings suggest that P312* arose in France or possibly England,
> then spread to Scandinavia and Germany, later to Spain, Portugal, Italy
> and
> Switzerland.


My response:

Dear Robert,

Unfortunately, your conclusion reflects a common mistake. What you showed
here, it not "arose" for a subclade, but a timespan to a survived common
ancestor of those haplotypes you have analyzed. One cannot make a conclusion
about "arose" looking at just TMRCAs, without considerations of many other
factors. Among them are TMRCAs for downstream subclades, which supposed to
be younger. However, what you would say if the TMRCA in France for R-21,
which is a "daughter" subclade of P312, is 140 or even 150 generations, in
your units? In fact, this is exactly what takes place with P312 and L21.

In order to make a conclusion about "arose" for a subclade, you need to
consider TMRCAs for P312, U106, L11, and their downstream subclades, and not
only that. You have to consider their base (apparent ancestral) haplotypes,
mutation differences between them, and deduce timespans to THEIR common
ancestors. You have to consider the whole "map" for Europe and Asia in those
terms, and reconstruct all incoming and outgoing routes with base haplotypes
and dates/chronology and frequencies. The last is the least important
factor, however, it also should be taken into consideration.

This is what DNA genealogy is about. Not population genetics, which aims at
different issues.

Regards,

Anatole Klyosov

******************************

> Scandinavia n=17
> 104.0021 (exclusions)
> 76.63982 (all markers)
>
> Germany n=14
> 96.58779 (exclusions)
> 81.02305 (all markers)
>
> Spain n=15
> 95.91887 (exclusions)
> 81.99336 (all markers)
>
> Portugal n=5
> 91.95402 (exclusions)
> 82.74632 (all markers)
>
> Italy n=5
> 60.38772 (exclusions)
> 63.4864 (all markers)
>
> Switzerland n=3
> 53.37298 (exclusions)
> 63.40714 (all markers)
>


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