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From: "Anatole Klyosov" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] NW European R1b from Iberia?
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 22:11:52 -0500
References: <mailman.1955.1291922460.2081.genealogy-dna@rootsweb.com>


> From: Vincent Vizachero <>
> Intraclade variance is always hard to interpret, and there are - as
> you notice - additional challenges when you use that technique on a
> paragroup rather than a proper clade.
>
> One thing you can definite NOT infer from a paragroup's variance is
> that you are estimating the TMRCA for the upstream clade. In other
> words, the variance of R-P312* does not lead to a TMRCA estimate for R-
> P312.

My response:

The concern is apparently exaggerated. However, the last paragraph and
particularly the last sentence is correct.

Intraclade variances is not hard at all to interpret when one compares base
haplotypes of subclades or branches under "the same umbrella". R-P312*
embraces the population each member of which has S116 snip, and none of
known snips from the P312 downstream clades known as of today. Therefore,
R-312* TMRCA can be calculated, right? Carriers of this R-P312* undoubtedly
have a lot of other snips not defined and not classified as yet, as well as
each one of us. Calculations will provide a time span to a common ancestor
who "first" obtained this S116 snip and not any other known downstream
snips. This individual had existed in the past, some 5,000 ybp. His direct
descendants live today, and do not have P312-downstream clades known today.
Hence, their TMRCA will give either that 5,000 ybp, or some time later, of
his survived descendant, direct common ancestor of today's R-312*.

R-M153 is a "parallel" clade with respect to P312*. It differs from P312* by
the M153 snip. Therefore, comparing the base haplotypes of P312* and M153
and their TMRCA we can figure out the base haplotype of P312 and how long
ago did he live.

Here is an example. The base haplotype for M153 in the 19 marker haplotype
is

13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 14 10 12 12 11 12 9 11

(the first panel is shown in the FTDNA format, the second panel contains DYS
437, 460, 438, 461, 462, 436, 434, 435),

while the base haplotype for P312* is

13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 -- 15 11 12 12 11 12 9 11

They differ by only two alleles in the second panel. The respective TMRCAs
are 2325+/-340 years and 3600+/-450 years (in Iberia). What is wrong with
it?

By the way, all 37 haplotypes of R-M153 in the dataset (Adams et al, 2008)
contain 4 base haplotypes, which gives 2125 ybp by the logarithmic method,
without counting mutations at all. Pretty good match with the "linear"
method.

The difference in two mutations separates their common ancestors by 1875
years, and places THEIR common ancestor (that is P312) in Iberia at 3900
ybp. Since the U106 base haplotype differs by 6 mutations from that for P312
in Iberia (in 67 marker haplotypes), it separates their common ancestors by
1325 years, and places THEIR common ancestor, that is L11, at about 4600
ybp. A separate calculation of TMRCA for (L23+ L51+ L11+), that is for L11,
gave 4575+/-580 ybp (Proceedings, August 2010, p. 1314). What is wrong with
that?

Regards,

Anatole Klyosov



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