Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2012-04 > 1334603956

From: Vince Tilroe <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Out of Africa
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 13:19:16 -0600
References: <><><088d01cd1be7$40e5cdd0$c2b16970$@org><3D77CBA038974C54AE348FAD79E20B69@JohnPC>
In-Reply-To: <3D77CBA038974C54AE348FAD79E20B69@JohnPC>

And on the conservative side... if the 3x10^-8 SNPs per site per generation
approximation holds (implying 0.78 SNPs per generation across the ~
26,000,000 base-pair coverage of the sequence-able Y-chromosome), and if
the average generational interval was typically 25 years, then your
projected 5,236 SNPs represents only ~102,000 years. And then it's
entirely possible that not all of these SNPs are strictly below A0: some
may actually exist in other haplogroups thanks to the Frankenstein-ish
assembly of the HUGO reference sequence (which is dominantly a composite of
R1b, but has bits and pieces from other haplogroups as well).

Vince T.

On 16 April 2012 10:34, Alister John Marsh <> wrote:

> Lawrence,
> Interesting WTY result.
> I know it is not strictly a valid thing to do, but if there were 26,000,000
> bases on Y where mutations could reasonably found, then proportionally to
> 82
> in 407,186, there would be 5,236 SNPs to distinguish this AO from Hugo,
> plus
> all of the existing SNPs found to date in AO which no doubt were not
> reported by FTDNA in WTY.
> If you for the moment ignore the already known SNPs in AO, which I
> personally have not bee counted in WTY, and if you say one new SNP arises
> every generation of 30 years, then 5,236 SNPs represents 157,080 years,
> give
> or take whatever margin of error you like to think of.
> I know this Micky Mouse maths would not hold much weight with the experts,
> but it does possibly suggest that AO and R1b (Hugo largely) had a common
> ancestor much more than 157,000 years ago.
> Just a passing thought.... WTY has been a huge success in my view, and is
> revealing some very interesting data.
> John.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lawrence Mayka
> Sent: Tuesday, April 17, 2012 3:40 AM
> To:
> Subject: Re: [DNA] Out of Africa
> Finch2 shows that FTDNA just completed a WTY of an A0 sample (kit 215865).
> The preliminary number of new SNPs found is 82 (across 407,186 base pairs).
> This is large but not astronomical, and certainly does not support an
> utterly independent origin of that Y chromosome.
> > From: [mailto:genealogy-dna-
> > ] On Behalf Of John Lerch
> > Although we all believe it's true that "gambler's ruin" has prevailed in
> the case of
> > the y chromosome (and in mtDNA also), there's no mathematical guarantee
> that
> > "gambler's ruin" will prevail before t = infinity.
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